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PBF Energy Inc. (PBF)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered a revenue and EPS beat versus Wall Street: Revenue was $7.48B vs $6.61B consensus and Primary EPS (adjusted) was $(1.03) vs $(1.21) consensus; Adjusted EBITDA was $61.8M. The beat was aided by seasonally supported product margins and partial Martinez restart, while light-heavy crude differentials remained a headwind . Primary EPS Consensus Mean* and Revenue Consensus Mean* [Q2 2025]: $(1.2129), $6.61B; actual Primary EPS $(1.03) and revenue $7.48B [Q2 2025] .
  • Cash ended at $590.7M; total debt $2.39B; net debt-to-cap 26% GAAP and 30% excluding special items; dividend maintained at $0.275/share, with liquidity boosted by insurance proceeds and planned terminal sale proceeds .
  • Guidance reiterated: FY25 capex $750–$775M and interest expense $165–$185M; throughput guidance for Q3 raised vs Q2 guidance (Total 865–915kbpd vs 795–855kbpd prior). RBI run-rate savings now “> $200M” by YE25 and “> $350M” by YE26; management said they are on track to exceed prior $230M/ $350M targets .
  • Near-term catalysts: Martinez full restart by year-end 2025 (subject to permitting and long-lead equipment deliveries), potential widening light-heavy differentials into 2H, and continued distillate strength; management highlighted constructive tailwinds in crude and product markets .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Revenue and Primary EPS beat consensus; adjusted EBITDA positive as operations improved across regions and partial Martinez restart supported volumes. “Performance improved across all PBF's regions… benefited from the seasonally higher margin environment.” . Primary EPS/Revenue beats vs S&P consensus* [Q2 2025] [GetEstimates].
    • Strong distillate backdrop and constructive product markets; management sees global supply/demand tight with capacity rationalization outpacing additions, positioning PBF’s complex coastal system well .
    • RBI cost program momentum: >$125M run-rate savings implemented; on track to exceed $230M by YE25 and $350M by YE26; savings to be ~70% OPEX and ~30% capital .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Light-heavy crude differentials remained narrow, pressuring feedstock costs; West Coast margins were volatile amid import dynamics and Martinez-related expenses ($30.4M OPEX special item) .
    • West Coast throughput and GRM per barrel were burdened by Martinez disruption and Torrance turnaround; West Coast refining operating expense per barrel spiked to $15.73 .
    • GAAP profitability still negative: net loss of $5.2M and diluted EPS $(0.05), though special items (insurance gain) provided a net after-tax benefit; adjusted Primary EPS remained a loss .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$7.35 $7.07 $7.48
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)$(2.54) $(3.53) $(0.05)
Primary EPS (Adjusted fully-converted, excl. special items) ($)$(2.82) $(3.09) $(1.03)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$117.2 $(258.8) $61.8
EBITDA excl. special items ($USD Millions)$93.4 $(270.2) $51.8
Gross Refining Margin per bbl (ex special items) ($/bbl)$9.88 $5.96 $8.38
Consolidated Gross Margin per bbl ($/bbl)$(3.89) $(6.39) $(0.76)
Refining OpEx per bbl ($/bbl)$7.94 $10.74 $7.96
Consensus vs Actual (Q2 2025)Q2 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)*$6.61*
Revenue Actual ($USD Billions)$7.48
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)*$(1.2129)*
Primary EPS Actual ($)$(1.03)
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)*$19.7*
EBITDA Actual ($USD Millions)$51.8

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown (Q2 2025):

SegmentRevenue ($USD Millions)Income from Operations ($USD Millions)
Refining$7,465.6 $72.8
Logistics$98.0 $56.3
Corporate—$(86.1)
Eliminations$(88.3) —
Consolidated Total$7,475.3 $43.0

KPIs and Market Indicators:

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Production (kbpd)926.7 732.7 845.8
Throughput (kbpd)921.3 730.4 839.1
Effective RIN Basket ($/RIN)$3.38 $4.75 $6.14
ANS (SF) 3-2-1 ($/bbl)$29.92 $25.55 $36.07

Non-GAAP special items (Q2 2025): Insurance gain $189.0M, Martinez fire OPEX $30.4M, severance $13.6M, SBR LCM +$8.0M; adjusted Primary EPS $(1.03) reflects exclusion of these items .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Throughput (kbpd)Q2 2025 vs Q3 2025795–855 kbpd (Q2: East 265–285, Mid 150–160, Gulf 165–175, West 215–235) 865–915 kbpd (Q3: East 320–340, Mid 150–160, Gulf 175–185, West 220–230) Raised for Q3 vs Q2
Capex ($USD Millions)FY 2025$750–$775 (excl. Martinez rebuild) $750–$775 (excl. Martinez rebuild) Maintained
Interest Expense ($USD Millions)FY 2025$165–$185 $165–$185 Maintained
RBI Run-Rate Savings ($USD Millions)YE 2025 / YE 2026>$200 by YE25 >$200 by YE25 and >$350 by YE26; “on track to exceed $230M/$350M” per mgmt Expanded (added YE26 target)
SBR Renewable Diesel Production (bpd)Q2 2025 vs Q3 2025Q2: 12–14k bpd Q3: 16–18k bpd Raised
DividendQ2 2025$0.275/share $0.275/share, payable Aug 28, 2025 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Martinez restartFire disclosed post-Q4; Q1: partial ops restored, restart targeted Q4’25, insurance process underway Partial ops restored; demolition complete; long-lead equipment pressure; permitting critical; restart by year-end 2025 Scope clarified; schedule risks noted; confidence in YE restart
Light-heavy differentialsNarrow spreads pressured capture in Q1 Expect widening into 2H’25 as heavy barrels return; PBF positioned to benefit Improving setup into H2
West Coast/California marketQ1: Martinez outage; elevated West Coast OpEx/bbl California structurally short post announced closures; imports drive volatility; Torrance turnaround underway Constructive medium-term margins; near-term volatility
RBI cost programInitiated early 2025; target >$200M YE25 >$125M implemented; on track to exceed $230M YE25 / $350M YE26; 70% OPEX / 30% CAPEX Accelerating implementation
Regulatory engagement (CA)—More constructive state dialogue amid closure risks; tangible improvements still needed Improving engagement; outcomes pending
SBR/renewable dieselQ1: catalyst change; Q2 guidance 12–14k bpd Q2 avg 14.2k bpd; Q3 guide 16–18k bpd; accrual of 45Z; break-even economics Gradual improvement; policy tailwinds mixed
Delaware data center option—Exploring monetization of excess real estate with partners; no definitive update Early-stage optionality

Management Commentary

  • “Performance improved across all PBF's regions in the second quarter… benefited from the seasonally higher margin environment. We continue to face challenges in the feedstock markets, specifically the narrow light-heavy differentials, but… broader, favorable outlook that global supply and demand balances remain tight.” — Matt Lucey, CEO .
  • “We currently have over $125 million of run-rate savings implemented so far… about 70% [in] OPEX and about 30%… capital… we are on track to exceed those stated targets [of $230M YE25 and $350M YE26].” — Management .
  • “We ended the quarter with approximately $590.7 million in cash and approximately $1.8 billion of net debt… net debt to cap was 30%… liquidity approximately $2.3 billion… expected $70 million tax refund and terminal sale proceeds.” — Karen Davis, CFO . Balance sheet data: cash $590.7M; total debt $2.39B; net debt-to-cap 26% GAAP; 30% excluding special items .
  • Martinez update: “Limited operations were restored… throughput 85,000–105,000 bpd… restart of the remaining units is planned to occur by year-end 2025… dependent on regulatory permitting… availability of certain critical equipment and components.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • RBI tracking and sustainability: Savings embedded into OPEX and capital programs, with KPIs tracked daily/monthly; emphasis on reliability and sustainability, not just cost cuts .
  • Crude differentials: Management expects light-heavy spreads to widen in 2H as heavy barrels return; PBF stands to benefit dollar-for-dollar on feedstock cost .
  • Martinez restart gating items: Long-lead process vessels/rotating equipment deliveries and air district permitting are critical path; demolition completed; major construction next .
  • California outlook: Structural shortfall of gasoline post LA/SF closures necessitates imports; volatility expected; PBF refineries positioned as low-cost providers .
  • SBR economics and credits: Accrued 45Z revenue; RIN price increases offset BTC/PTC switch; SBR near break-even currently; Q3 production guided up .
  • Insurance proceeds: $250M received in Q2; collections broadly matching incident impact; future interim payments expected based on costs and BI loss calculations .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 beats: Revenue $7.48B vs $6.61B consensus*; Primary EPS $(1.03) vs $(1.21) consensus*; EBITDA $51.8M vs $19.7M consensus* — significant outperformance on topline and earnings quality despite headwinds. Number of estimates: EPS (14), Revenue (8)* . Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Implications: Street models likely to raise 2H assumptions on throughput (Q3 guidance raised) and distillate margin capture; upside sensitivity as light-heavy spreads widen and Martinez fully restarts by YE .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The quarter delivered a clear beat on revenue and adjusted EPS; near-term margin tailwinds (distillate strength, anticipated widening light-heavy spreads) support improving capture into 2H .
  • Martinez rebuild is progressing; YE2025 full restart remains the key operational catalyst; watch permitting milestones and long-lead equipment deliveries for schedule confidence .
  • RBI cost program is gaining traction, with >$125M run-rate implemented and targets likely to be exceeded; expect visible OPEX/bbl improvements in 2026 (partial in 2025) .
  • Balance sheet/liquidity solid: $590.7M cash; dividend maintained; asset sale proceeds and tax refund enhance flexibility; management focused on deleveraging when markets allow .
  • California market tightening post announced closures sets a constructive backdrop for West Coast cracks; expect volatility around imports but structurally supportive margins .
  • Renewable diesel (SBR) production trending up post catalyst change; 45Z accrual helps, but economics remain mixed; consider policy/RIN price sensitivities .
  • Watch for further insurance proceeds timing and quantum; interim payments could smooth working capital around Martinez project execution .